The global consequences of the pandemic are particularly severe for German export-dependent enterprises. Now to this are added new concerns from the crown. How will the German economy spend the winter?
New economic data is often an atmospheric test for financial markets. This week there were some surprises, good and bad. In this context German industry had to face a sharp drop in orders in October. The culprit for this was the much-mentioned lack of materials. Therefore mostly foreign customers were shown to be reserved to order. Added to this is the deteriorating coronary situation in many countries.
Industrial production on the other hand gave a positive signal. In the automotive sector in particular, more cars and vehicle parts came out of production lines. For ING Germany chief economist Carsten Brzeski, the news is not a big surprise. ” empty, “Brzeski explains. From this point of view, it does not take much to finally bring growth back to German industry.
Chip production continues to stagnate
However, the problems have not yet been resolved. In fact, it is particularly the production of semiconductors in Asia that is slowing down companies in Germany. Experts believe that the situation of computer chips may not ease before the second half of next year. Add to that a point, according to Andreas Scheuerle of Deka-Bank: “Supply difficulties do not weigh on any country in Europe as much as on Germany – because of the large share of industry in the economy and perhaps because of the large share. of the automotive industry ”.
Therefore, the fate of the German economy depends above all on the situation of German industry. “The big joker is industrial production, which, with a brief revival now, could possibly stave off recession,” explains Brzeski, an expert at ING.
For most stock market professionals, however, the atmosphere is more pessimistic. Every month, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim publishes the economic barometer for professional investors. There is talk of a dark winter half, especially due to the revival of the Corona pandemic.
Consumption hopes
On the other hand, the outlook for next year is much more positive, not only because the coronary-related restrictions may be lifted again. The ones that are expected to benefit are the hotels, as well as the retail trade, if the consumer regains the taste of consumption. “We expect to have real growth next year, with more than four percent growth,” says Sebastian Dullien of the Hans Böckler Foundation’s Institute for Macroeconomic and Economic Research. “Because the Germans have set aside a relatively large amount of money during the crisis, which they partly want to spend.”
On stock exchanges, this optimism is welcome – after days of losses in the stock markets. But: in the event of a pandemic, unexpected problems can quickly thwart the plans of investors and economists./DW